There is a vigorous debate among experts about whether the web is truly in decline or instead evolving in response to major technological disruptions and policy shifts. While web traffic patterns and the dominance of closed platforms lead some to sound alarms, others argue the web’s relevance and creativity remain strong.

The Decline Narrative

Some industry leaders and policy experts unmistakably warn that the open web is in rapid decline. In a recent court filing, Google’s legal team bluntly stated: “The fact is that today, the open web is already in rapid decline”. This sentiment is echoed in discussions about generative AI and its impact on web traffic, as Axios notes: “A world where Google answers most questions in a single machine voice makes online life more convenient — and duller”.

Konstantinos Komaitis, a veteran in internet policy, underscores the dangers of closed ecosystems: “The centralization of information online in walled gardens threatens to erode the democratic and innovative spirit of the web”. Recent data shows a significant drop in open-web display share, with Google AdWords impressions falling from 40% in 2019 to just 11% by early 2025, amplifying concerns about the shrinking public web.

The Optimist Perspective

Yet, not all experts agree with the decline narrative. Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai recently noted: “When we look at the number of web pages available to us, that number has gone up by 45% in the last two years alone… I think people are producing a lot of content and I see consumers consuming a lot of content”. Similarly, Nick Fox, Google’s VP of Search, said: “From our point of view, the web is thriving”.

Steven Weber, Faculty Director of the UC Berkeley Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity, remarks: “The trajectory will shift towards more government presence, more rules, more regulation. Less freedom to innovate,” but does not argue the web itself will fundamentally vanish. Instead, Weber suggests the web’s form and dynamism are shaped by broader societal and geopolitical currents.

Policy and Innovation

Policy interventions are a double-edged sword for the web’s future. Eliza Yip, of the G7 Research Group, notes, “Web 3.0 technologies… introduce complex legal and ethical challenges” that could either limit or enhance the web’s resilience. The Web Foundation further argues reform is essential for making the web a safer, more inclusive place: “We support reforms to make the web a safer place for all users, particularly vulnerable communities”.

Conclusion

The fate of the web is not a simple story of decline, but one of transformation amid major technical and policy shifts. As Komaitis warns, “We need to reclaim internet freedom and openness before it’s too late”. Whether the web is in decline or simply remaking itself for a new era remains a defining question for internet policy experts and users worldwide.